Analysis and Prediction of Shanghai's GDP Based on ARFIMA and ARIMA Models
Authors
Jingyun Xu1, Peng Yuan1, *
1School of Applied Science and Civil Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai, Guangdong, 519088, China
*Corresponding author.
Email: yuan_peng@bitzh.edu.cn
Corresponding Author
Peng Yuan
Available Online 2 September 2024.
- DOI
- 10.2991/978-2-38476-277-4_174How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- GDP; ARFIMA Model; ARIMA Model
- Abstract
This article takes Shanghai's GDP as the research object and predicts and analyzes the GDP of Shanghai for the next ten years by comparing two time series models: ARFIMA and ARIMA. Through a comparison of evaluation metrics, it is revealed that there are certain differences between these two models in estimating future GDP. The ARFIMA model performs better than the ARIMA model in terms of AIC value, while the ARIMA model has certain advantages in RMSE.
- Copyright
- © 2024 The Author(s)
- Open Access
- Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Jingyun Xu AU - Peng Yuan PY - 2024 DA - 2024/09/02 TI - Analysis and Prediction of Shanghai's GDP Based on ARFIMA and ARIMA Models BT - Proceedings of the 2024 10th International Conference on Humanities and Social Science Research (ICHSSR 2024) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 1565 EP - 1571 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-2-38476-277-4_174 DO - 10.2991/978-2-38476-277-4_174 ID - Xu2024 ER -