Housing Purchase Restriction and Birth Rates: An Unintended Consequence of Governmental Intervention

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.210319.115How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Housing purchase restriction, birth rates, housing prices

Abstract

Ever since the late 20th Century, housing prices has been rising in an unstoppable trend in China, making it harder for first-time purchasers lacking sufficient savings to obtain their first home. In 2010, a housing purchase restriction was implemented by central government as a proposed solution by curbing speculative demand. Rapidly rising housing prices have effects beyond those on first-time buyers. Indeed, many studies show that increasing housing prices are associated with decreases in fertility. Based on prior research, our study focuses on the relationship between the housing purchse restriction policy and the birth rates. Our results reveal both economic and societal implications to real estate market in China, providing basic guidelines and market insights for policymakers in their decision-making. We use a difference in difference (DiD) methodology to compare the birth rates before and after the national policy implementation in 2010 across cities to determine the effect of such regulation. While theory suggests that housing purchase restrictions should raise the birth rates, our empirical study suggests a more complicated relationship: the housing purchase restriction reduces the birth rates immediately after its implementation, and increases the birth rates gradually over time.

Copyright

© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Chong He
AU  - Chengjun Han
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/03/22
TI  - Housing Purchase Restriction and Birth Rates: An Unintended Consequence of Governmental Intervention
BT  - Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 619
EP  - 629
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210319.115
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.210319.115
ID  - He2021
ER  -