Investments in oil production and development in conditions of oil price stagnation

DOI

10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.107How to use a DOI?

Keywords

market development factors; oil reserves and volumes of extraction; forecasts and evaluations of market development; northern Arctic deposits; expert-analytical system

Abstract

Oil price stagnation resulted in decreased investments in oil production and development. A direct correlation of a high degree was found between oil price dynamics and investments in oil production. This process will lead to a decline in oil production and reserves, causing supply and demand imbalance. It will be possible to retain the oil production level in Russia at 10.8 mln barrels per day and increase it to 565 mln tonnes a year against the background of natural decline in oil production, caused by field depletion, due to the implementation of new projects and development of new oil deposits, northern Arctic ones among them. The northern Arctic region is considered an important center of hydrocarbon production. Oil volume in the Arctic tundra today is more than 2.5 billion tonnes. Russia prioritizes this production area on account of several processes. Field development in the northern Arctic is relevant and timely. High environmental and economic risks characteristic of the northern Arctic macroregion demands accurate systems to assess risks of the Timan-Pechora oil province development. Models of optimal transport infrastructure are developed based on the oil market current situation. The authors have selected primary factors related to the northern Timan-Pechora Province conditions. Seven groups of factors were selected, matrices for each group were developed to identify prioritized external factors. At that stage, intercorrelation coefficients were defined to exclude dependent factors from the model. Expert analysis of matrices demonstrates anticipated probability of strategic factors and the degree of their potential effect when developing deposits. Qualitative assessment of factors was made with the analytic hierarchy process method. The analysis results will enable us to identify potential capabilities and threats to oil field logistics infrastructure design.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Olga Sushko
AU  - Alexandr Plastinin
AU  - Vladimir Saruchev
PY  - 2017/06
DA  - 2017/06
TI  - Investments in oil production and development in conditions of oil price stagnation
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Trends of Technologies and Innovations in Economic and Social Studies 2017
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 653
EP  - 659
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.107
DO  - 10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.107
ID  - Sushko2017/06
ER  -