Modeling and forecasting of GRP based on R. Solow model

DOI

10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.53How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Gross regional product, economic growth, modeling, forecasting, production function, R. Solow model, Solow residual

Abstract

The article is devoted to the question of using R. Solow dynamic macroeconomic model of economic growth for modeling and forecasting the dynamics of the gross regional product by the example of the Volga Federal District regions. The models were built in current and comparable prices with and without the lag when entering funds. The multiplicative production functions with and without the scientific and technical progress were taken as a production function. For the model implementation, the following macroeconomic indicators were selected: gross regional product, cost of fixed production assets, population, the number of labor resources employed in the economy and the number of economically active population. The article shows the results of numerical experiments on the implementation of R. Solow models, calculation of parameters that characterise scientific and technical progress, including the Solow residual, and the results of forecasting the gross regional product for the Volga Federal District. The corresponding software "EGRMod" was developed to work under Windows OS in the MS Access environment or under the control of the Access Runtime library. To accumulate data, an external Access database is used. Numerical calculations are performed in SQL using VBA. The research is supported by Russian Science Foundation project #16-18-10017 «Complex of programs for forecasting economic development of the region».

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - T.N. Kokotkina
AU  - N.S. Sadovin
AU  - E.I. Tsaregorodtsev
AU  - T.G. Barkalova
PY  - 2017/06
DA  - 2017/06
TI  - Modeling and forecasting of GRP based on R. Solow model
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Trends of Technologies and Innovations in Economic and Social Studies 2017
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 320
EP  - 325
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.53
DO  - 10.2991/ttiess-17.2017.53
ID  - Kokotkina2017/06
ER  -