Forecasting further costs of fixed assets in the gas transportation system for management purposes

DOI

10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.83How to use a DOI?

Keywords

further expenses, repair, forecasting, fixed assets, enterprises of gas transportation

Abstract

One of the most important tasks of the sustainable development of the domestic gas industry is the maintenance of industrial capacities of the industry in working condition. The solution to this problem is complicated by the reduction of the financial base of the processes of renewal of fixed assets: the existing gas tariffs in the gas supply system do not allow to carry out repairs, reconstruction and modernization of gas networks in the necessary volumes, terms of use of separate parts and units which have already expired. As a result, this leads to a reduction in the industrial safety of gas transportation and the gas distribution system as a whole. At the same time, there are significant internal reserves for improving the efficiency of gas transport companies. One of these reserves is the optimization and reduction of maintenance costs, current, emergency and other types of repairs of fixed assets through the active introduction of digitalization of management processes and the creation of a single information space for the adoption of management decisions. On the basis of the systematic approach, a comprehensive study has been carried out of the volumes and conditions of further costs of fixed assets in the system of gas transportation enterprises, the order of formation and presentation in these companies' financial statements of information on operations with repairs of fixed assets, restoration and maintenance of their working capacity. The research methods used include analysis and synthesis, generalization and abstraction, as well as special methods of cluster, discriminant and linear regression analysis to predict future costs. As further costs of fixed assets in the natural gas transportation system grow by at least 10% each year, management of such processes requires reliable information both in the financial statements and for operational purposes. It has been established that the volume of repair works depends on the type of repair and complexity of the objects of the fixed assets that are being repaired. To calculate the estimated cost of repairs (y) it is expedient to take into account the minimum period of use of fixed assets (x1), the actual number of years of their operation (x2), repair complexity of fixed assets of the corresponding group (х3) and the initial or revalued value of fixed assets (х4). Forecasting of the magnitude and behavior of subsequent costs has been carried out in the following stages: clusterization of groups of fixed assets; groups , which should include observation (for this purpose the results of discriminant analysis are used) have been defined; the coefficients of the linear function (using discriminant and linear regression analysis) has been found; linear combinations of values x1, x2, x3, x4 with corresponding coefficients in the amount with a free member (obtained using linear regression analysis) gave a prognosis of the value of y. The estimated implementation of the models has proved that the quantitative characteristics of this ratio are dependent on the physical deterioration and repair complexity of the objects of fixed assets. The proposed model is self-sufficient as a methodological tool for organizing accurate accounting of expenses for repair of fixed assets and the efficiency of using the resource potential of enterprises in the oil and gas industry. It is one of the most realistic and effective means of forecasting for the purpose of managing repair work in the system of natural gas transportation.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Liliana Horal
AU  - Sofiia Kafka
AU  - Larisa Galyuk
AU  - Yuriy Chuchuk
PY  - 2019/09
DA  - 2019/09
TI  - Forecasting further costs of fixed assets in the gas transportation system for management purposes
BT  - Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Strategies, Models and Technologies of Economic Systems Management (SMTESM 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 426
EP  - 431
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.83
DO  - 10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.83
ID  - Horal2019/09
ER  -