Basic on Asperity Uncertainty Factors: Near-field Strong Ground Motion Prediction in Tianshui Basin

DOI

10.2991/rac-18.2018.18How to use a DOI?

Keywords

ground motion prediction, uncertainty, asperity, logical tree

Abstract

Taking the core area of Tianshui earthquake as the object of study, the Green function method is used to predict the ground motion characteristics of the Ms8.0 destructive earthquake in the future. We mainly studied the cognitive uncertainty of asperity. We used logical tree method to research the cognitive uncertainty factors while used statistical method to study stochastic uncertainties. This paper establishes 4 source models with considering the cognitive uncertainty characteristics of the asperity. We predict the characteristics of the future earthquakes in the Tianshui earthquake core area by considering the number and area of the asperity. Conclusions: the prediction results of the 4 asperities source models can basically reflect the destruction intensity of the Ms8.0 earthquake. The intensity of the source model of the double asperities is basically equal to the strength of the Wenchuan earthquake while the PGA of the three asperities is higher 0.5 than the Wenchuan earthquake. This anomaly is also possible. For example, the Lushan earthquake, the magnitude is Ms7.0 with maximum PGA is almost 1.0g. Under special site conditions, when the magnitude reaches a certain level, it is very likely that there will be a large peak acceleration and even a small magnitude acceleration.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Zongchao Li
AU  - Mengtan Gao
AU  - Xueliang Chen
AU  - Sen Qiao
AU  - Jian Wu
PY  - 2018/10
DA  - 2018/10
TI  - Basic on Asperity Uncertainty Factors: Near-field Strong Ground Motion Prediction in Tianshui Basin
BT  - Proceedings of the 8th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 109
EP  - 115
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-18.2018.18
DO  - 10.2991/rac-18.2018.18
ID  - Li2018/10
ER  -