Prediction of Epidemic Disease Model and Analysis of Prevention and Control Countermeasures of COVID-19

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-042-8_169How to use a DOI?

Keywords

COVID-19; epidemic situation; SEIR model

Abstract

The novel coronavirus has posed a threat to human life and safety. Accurately predicting the spread trend of the novel coronavirus and discovering prevention and control measures play an important role in the stable development of the whole human society. The infectious disease dynamics model can predict the development trend of COVID-19 and evaluate the impact of different prevention and control measures on the development of the epidemic, providing a scientific and reasonable theoretical basis for epidemic prevention and control decisions. Based on the traditional infectious disease model and the characteristics of the novel coronavirus epidemic, this paper improved and optimized the model to simulate and predict the development trend of the novel coronavirus epidemic, and analyzed the development status of the epidemic with different prevention and control measures. The traditional SIR model and SEIR model were used to predict and analyze the data of Hubei Province of China and Michigan of the United States in the early stage of the epidemic development. It was found that the prevention and control measures of China and the United States had an important impact on the development of the epidemic, and the SEIR model was further analyzed to improve the characteristics of the epidemic. The SEIR infectious disease dynamics model was constructed and the sensitivity of the improved SEIR model was tested. Through the study, it is found that the improved model is reliable in predicting the epidemic transmission trend in Hubei Province, and the prediction results of the model can provide strong support for the epidemic prevention and control strategies in the future.

Copyright

© 2023 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Moyun Du
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/29
TI  - Prediction of Epidemic Disease Model and Analysis of Prevention and Control Countermeasures of COVID-19
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on mathematical statistics and economic analysis (MSEA 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1184
EP  - 1196
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-042-8_169
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-042-8_169
ID  - Du2022
ER  -