Proceedings of the 2024 7th International Symposium on Traffic Transportation and Civil Architecture (ISTTCA 2024)

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Research on container demand analysis and volume forecasting in the hinterlands of Pinglu Canal

Authors
Junsheng Li1, Jiaqi Yang1, 2, *
1School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430063, China
2State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, 430063, China
*Corresponding author. Email: styjq@whut.edu.cn
Corresponding Author
Jiaqi Yang
Available Online 28 September 2024.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-514-0_40How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Pinglu Canal; transferred container volume; induced container volume; Attraction-Logit model; improved multi-factor dynamic generation method
Abstract

In order to solve the problem of measuring the transferred and induced container volume of the new transportation projects, we analyze container demand from a perspective of hinterlands, and divide the advantages of the new transportation projects into the reduction of the transportation costs and time. By applying the rate, we are able to transform the transportation time into a monetary figure, quantifying the cost of time, thereby setting up generalized transportation cost model. We determine the container transferred volume utilizing Attraction-Logit model. We translate the decrease in costs into an increase in foreign trade export value, and leverage the improved multi-factor dynamic generation method to derive the induced container volume. The prediction consequences indicate that by 2050, the container volume is anticipated to arrive at 3967.999 thousand TEUs, of which the transferred container volume will be 3210.685 thousand TEUs, and the induced container volume will arrive to 757.314 thousand TEUs. We find the proportion of transfer traffic and inducement traffic is about 79% and 21%, respectively, and transferred volume dominates container demand. We forecast the container volume to provide effective reference for the future planning of freight transport development in Pinglu Canal.

Copyright
© 2024 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2024 7th International Symposium on Traffic Transportation and Civil Architecture (ISTTCA 2024)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
28 September 2024
ISBN
978-94-6463-514-0
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-514-0_40How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2024 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Junsheng Li
AU  - Jiaqi Yang
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/09/28
TI  - Research on container demand analysis and volume forecasting in the hinterlands of Pinglu Canal
BT  - Proceedings of the 2024 7th International Symposium on Traffic Transportation and Civil Architecture (ISTTCA 2024)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 400
EP  - 408
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-514-0_40
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-514-0_40
ID  - Li2024
ER  -