Analyzing Impacts of Renewable Energy Directive (RED) on Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Export and Forecasting CPO Export from Indonesia to European Union (EU) for 2019-2020 Using ARIMA Intervention Analysis

DOI

10.2991/icot-19.2019.28How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Renewable Energy Directive (RED), CPO, European Union, Indonesia, ARIMA Intervention

Abstract

The implementation of Renewable Energy Directive (RED) policy on April 2009 by European Union (EU) received several responses from many countries, due to create nontariff barrier in international trade. RED (2009/28/EC) established an overall policy for the production and promotion of energy from renewable sources in the EU. It requires the EU to fulfil at least 20% of its total energy needs with renewables by 2020. One of the countries affected by RED policy is Indonesia. The EU includes Crude Palm Oil (CPO) as a nonenvironmentally friendly product on its RED. After this policy was set, Indonesia’s CPO exports to the EU fell from 275.162,425 metrict tons (MT) to 236.653,661 MT and the next month just 896,876 MT. This research purposes to analyze RED policy and its duration impact on Indonesia’s CPO exports to the EU. This research uses ARIMA Intervention to analyze monthly data of Indonesia’s CPO exports from January 2002 to December 2018 (before and after policy implementation) and forecast the monthly increment of CPO export from Indonesia to EU for 2019 until 2020. It is obtained that RED policy gave an impact on declining of Indonesia’s CPO exports to the EU only two months after the policy was set. RED policy has a temporary effect. Forecasting results show the monthly increment volume of Indonesia’s CPO exports to the EU from January 2019 to 2020 will experience an upward trend. The lowest increment of export volume is in Januari 2020 (298,527 MT) and the highest is in August 2020 (330,063 MT).

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Anni Syahdia Nasution
AU  - Ika Yuni Wulansari
PY  - 2019/09
DA  - 2019/09
TI  - Analyzing Impacts of Renewable Energy Directive (RED) on Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Export and Forecasting CPO Export from Indonesia to European Union (EU) for 2019-2020 Using ARIMA Intervention Analysis
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 131
EP  - 135
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.28
DO  - 10.2991/icot-19.2019.28
ID  - Nasution2019/09
ER  -