Forecasting of Quantum Dots Technology using Simple Logistic Growth Curve

DOI

10.2991/icot-19.2019.27How to use a DOI?

Keywords

nanotechnology, patent map, quantum dots, technology life cycle

Abstract

Mastery of technology is the key to the success of a nation. One of the rapidly developing technologies in the fourth Industrial Revolution is nanotechnology, which is also said to be the beginning of the 5.0 industrial era. This paper is intended to forecast one of nanotechnology, quantum dots (QDs) technology, using patent literature and technological growth curve models. Technology maturity of the QDs technology is determined from the forecast. Patent data pertaining to QDs technology is taken from United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) from 1976 to 2016 using web scraping technique. From the literature study, logistic growth curve is considered as a common method to forecast the life cycle of technology. The upper limit used in this analysis is defined and a formula to evaluate the same is proposed. The fit of the transformed logistic curve is determined with the help of R-Square value. Parameters of logistic curve are estimated using nonlinear least square method and regression. The forecasting errors over the forecast region are estimated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). From the analysis, the QDs technology is categorized as an MATURE TECHNOLOGY. Current forecast of QDs technology maturity is that QDs is an important technology with high competitive impact and great integration into products and processes. Appications of QDs are now found in bioimaging, solar cells, LEDs, diode lasers, transistors, etc. Technology developers must be clear in understanding intellectual property boundaries and evaluating the benefits of forming strategic alliances to trade IP (intellectual property).

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Nurmitra Sari Purba
AU  - Rani Nooraeni
PY  - 2019/09
DA  - 2019/09
TI  - Forecasting of Quantum Dots Technology using Simple Logistic Growth Curve
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Trade 2019 (ICOT 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 126
EP  - 130
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icot-19.2019.27
DO  - 10.2991/icot-19.2019.27
ID  - Purba2019/09
ER  -