Study of Perspective and Prospective Aspects on Indonesia Balance of Payment in 1980-2017
- DOI
- 10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- foreign reserves; Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP); Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH)
- Abstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of Interest Rate, Economic Growth, Domestic Credit and Foreign Exchange against Foreign Reserves. The analysis is based on Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP) theory. The object of research is the value of Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserve. This study uses quarterly time series data from 1980 to 2017. Data analysis methods used are Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) with GARCH (1.1), ARCH in mean (ARCH-M), Threshold ARCH (TARCH) and GARCH (1,1) with the Variant Regressor. The selection of the best model is based on the level of significance, the value of Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion. The selected model is the TARCH estimation method. Based on the TARCH output, it can be concluded that all independent variables have significant effect on the Foreign Exchange Reserve, except Domestic Credit. The direction of the relationship of each variable is consistent with the theory of Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABP).
- Copyright
- © 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Gregorius Nasiansenus Masdjojo AU - Alimudin Rizal Rifai AU - Sri Isnowati AU - Mohamad Fauzan PY - 2019/07 DA - 2019/07 TI - Study of Perspective and Prospective Aspects on Indonesia Balance of Payment in 1980-2017 BT - Proceedings of the International Conference on Banking, Accounting, Management, and Economics (ICOBAME 2018) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 118 EP - 121 SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26 DO - 10.2991/icobame-18.2019.26 ID - Masdjojo2019/07 ER -