An Overview of Illusion of Validity

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-098-5_39How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Illusion of validity; Decision-making Confidence; NBA game prediction

Abstract

The main topic of this article is the “illusion of validity” and through two experiments: Decision-predition in chess game and NBA game prediction to discuss this theory in real life.Compared to other behavioral economics theories with a large data base, the illusion of validity is still far from real life.The aim of this essay is to elaborate the illusion of validity theory from the perspective of life.The results of the experiments prove that Whether it's ordinary people with no experience in decision-making or experts with the right to speak in a certain field, they will both have this bias(illusion of validity).Either participations have much confidence in the correct rate of their decision-making, or they will not predict the correct results at all.

Copyright

© 2023 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Qinye Zhao
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/27
TI  - An Overview of Illusion of Validity
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 4th International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 337
EP  - 343
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-098-5_39
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-098-5_39
ID  - Zhao2022
ER  -