Analysis and Forecast of Railway Passenger Volume Using System Dynamics

DOI

10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51How to use a DOI?

Keywords

system dynamics; railway passenger volume; forecast; number of railway staffs;mileage

Abstract

A system dynamics model is established based on the analysis of main factors and their relationships in the railway passenger transportation system. The causal loop diagram, flow chart and the Structural equations were established, and relevant parameters are determined. The model is verified by comparison of historical statistical and simulated data. Finally passenger volumes of next five years in railway transport system are forecasted. The results show that the model is effective and feasible. System dynamics model meets the characteristics of railway passenger transport system. It can be used to forecast short-term railway passenger volume well.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Xiaoyu Zhi
PY  - 2018/03
DA  - 2018/03
TI  - Analysis and Forecast of Railway Passenger Volume Using System Dynamics
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 2nd International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Automation (ICEEA 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 233
EP  - 237
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51
DO  - 10.2991/iceea-18.2018.51
ID  - Zhi2018/03
ER  -