Trend Prediction and Analysis of Total Health Expenditure in Jiangsu Province Based on Grey GM (1,1)

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-198-2_37How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Total health expenditure; GM (1,1) model; Grey prediction; Jiangsu Province

Abstract

With the rapid development of the social economy, people’s consumption level is increasing, and more attention is paid to health security. Especially in the context of the new coronavirus epidemic sweeping the world, people’s demand for a healthy environment is more urgent. The environment is people’s livelihood, environmental protection is to meet people’s basic health needs. Based on this, China's annual investment in public health is increasing, and the total health expenditure is an important part of local government spending, especially in the more economically developed areas, the increase in health costs is more obvious. Therefore, this paper chooses Jiangsu Province as the research object to analyze the total health expenditure of Jiangsu Province in 2015 and 2019 and its composition, using the GM (1,1) grey prediction model to analyze the fluctuation of total health expenditure and the changing trend of financing structure in Jiangsu Province in the next 6 years, to provide a reference for relevant departments in Jiangsu Province to formulate and improve health policies, and also provide scientific and powerful data support for the formulation and adjustment of macro policies, and further promote the renewal and improvement of the medical and health system in Jiangsu Province. Based on the data results obtained by the grey prediction model, it is easy to know that the total health expenditure of Jiangsu Province increased from 488.546 billion yuan to 785.104 billion yuan from 2020 to 2025. The proportion of government health expenditure and personal health expenditure in total health expenditure decreased from 21.20% and 23.30% to 19.87% and 21.20%, respectively. The proportion of social health expenditure increased from 55.50% to 58.93%. To sum up, the total health expenditure in Jiangsu Province shows a steady growth trend, but the financing structure is imbalanced. The proportion of government health expenditure is relatively low, the proportion of social health expenditure is increasing yearly, and the proportion of personal health expenditure is decreasing year by year. Therefore, in the future, relevant departments should further optimize the financing structure and increase the government's financial investment in the field of health care, to rationalize the total health expenditure and financing structure of Jiangsu Province, and constantly deepen the reform of medical and health care to ensure the sustainable development of the health care system in Jiangsu Province.

Copyright

© 2023 The Author(s)

Open Access

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Jiawei Xu
PY  - 2023
DA  - 2023/08/10
TI  - Trend Prediction and Analysis of Total Health Expenditure in Jiangsu Province Based on Grey GM (1,1)
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Academic Conference on Blockchain, Information Technology and Smart Finance (ICBIS 2023)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 364
EP  - 370
SN  - 2589-4900
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-198-2_37
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-198-2_37
ID  - Xu2023
ER  -