Application of the Bayes Theory Prinicples in Planning a Motor Transport Company Work

DOI

10.2991/fred-19.2020.33How to use a DOI?

Keywords

motor transport company, the Bayes theorem, specialized rolling stock, transportation work

Abstract

The Bayes approach allows obtaining a broader interpretation of the genuine parameters of the model of functioning of a motor transport company when transporting goods by specialized rolling stock for current planning, assuming that the technical and operational indicator - the haul distance with cargo is a probabilistic value. The aim of the research is to develop a theoretical and practical method for determining the planned volume of cargo transportation under contracts by specialized rolling stock with the use of the Bayes theorem. A probabilistic revision process to obtain new data when determining the output of specialized rolling stock has been carried out. A mathematical model for determining the probability transportation performance by each rolling stock unit under contracts at the stage of making a transportation plan has been developed. The application of the developed mathematical model in the practice of a motor transport company operation will allow obtaining the probability of transportation work performance by specialized rolling stock under contracts; the probability of transportation work performance by a certain unit of specialized rolling stock under the contract in question; the probability of using each unit of specialized rolling stock of a certain typical size when meeting the conditions of the contract and obtaining planned output, which depends on the haul distance with the carg

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - L. S. Trofimova
PY  - 2020/01
DA  - 2020/01
TI  - Application of the Bayes Theory Prinicples in Planning a Motor Transport Company Work
BT  - Proceedings of the International Session on Factors of Regional Extensive Development (FRED 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 156
EP  - 160
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/fred-19.2020.33
DO  - 10.2991/fred-19.2020.33
ID  - Trofimova2020/01
ER  -