A CMIP6 multi-model-based analysis of potential climate change effects on Kunhar River Basin, Pakistan

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-591-1_5How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Climate change; Climate projections; Hydropower development; Kunhar River Basin; SWAT model; Trend analysis

Abstract

Many of Pakistan’s watersheds are facing challenges related to both water quality and availability, primarily due to changes in precipitation and temperature. This has prompted the need for revisions in management strategies. This research seeks to assess water security in northern Pakistan within the framework of anthropogenic climate change. The Kunhar River Basin (KRB), one of the biggest rivers in the region, was the subject of an analysis of the effects of Using Study how runoff is affected by climate change with the Soils and Waters Assessment Tool (SWAT). Six general circulation models (GCMs), after bias correction, were used under two distinct emission possibilities for pathologies socioeconomically shared (SSPs). Nash-Sutcliffe effectiveness (NSE), percentage bias (PBIAS), and correlation coefficients (R2) were used to assess the model’s performance, and the results showed that it performed better than 0.75. The results show that runoff in the KRB is well represented by the SWAT model at both the monthly and daily periods. The SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios predict an average annual increase in precipitation of 3.08% and 5.86%, respectively, over the 1980–2015 baseline. It is also anticipated that daily high temperatures would increase by 2.08℃ to 3.07℃, while average daily low temperatures are projected to increase by 2.09℃ to 3.39℃ from 2020 to 2099. As a result, annual runoff is projected to grow by 5.47% and 7.60% under the two SSP scenarios, ensuring adequate water availability for future socioeconomic development.

Copyright

© 2024 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Abdul Waheed
AU  - Muhammad Hidayat Jamal
AU  - Fawad Ullah
AU  - Muhammad Ameer Hamza
AU  - Khairul Idlan Muhammad
AU  - Muhammad Hammad
AU  - Muhammad Faisal Javed
AU  - Aitezaz Hassan Safi
AU  - Ahmed Hussain
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/12/01
TI  - A CMIP6 multi-model-based analysis of potential climate change effects on Kunhar River Basin, Pakistan
BT  - Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Climate Change and Emerging Trends in Civil Engineering (CCETC 2024)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 40
EP  - 64
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-591-1_5
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-591-1_5
ID  - Waheed2024
ER  -