Proceedings of the 2022 Brawijaya International Conference (BIC 2022)

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Anticipating the Scarcity of Food Commodity to Sufficient Availability for the Community in East Java with a Comparison Approach to Forecasting Artificial Neural Networks and Exponential Smoothing

Authors
Agus Widodo1, *, Marsudi1, Dwija Wisnu Brata1, Nahlia Rakhmawati1, Pramudya Adi Wardana1
1Mathematics and Natural Science, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia
*Corresponding author. Email: aguswidodo@ub.ac.id
Corresponding Author
Agus Widodo
Available Online 30 April 2023.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-140-1_53How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Price; Food Commodities; East Java; Exponential Smoothing
Abstract

This research was conducted to predict food commodity prices which include beef prices, medium quality rice price data, chicken egg prices, sugar prices, branded cooking oil prices, bulk cooking oil prices, curly red chili prices, garlic prices, shallot prices and price of grilled chicken the research carried out has a contribution to the commodity variables which are added as part of the factors causing food shortages in 2021, whereas in research related to predictions as was done by previous researchers that variables related to activity objects become a reference in the prediction process. This research was conducted by analyzing food commodity price data taken from the weekly period, namely December 2020 (IV)–April 2022 (I) in East Java Province using the exponential smoothing method. From the results of the analysis it is known that the smallest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) ranges from 0.22%–2.44%, which means that the prediction accuracy of food ingredients using the triple exponential smoothing method is very high, which is greater than 97.66% so that it can be used as a recommendations in forecasting food commodity prices for the next period.

Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2022 Brawijaya International Conference (BIC 2022)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
30 April 2023
ISBN
978-94-6463-140-1
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-140-1_53How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2023 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Agus Widodo
AU  - Marsudi
AU  - Dwija Wisnu Brata
AU  - Nahlia Rakhmawati
AU  - Pramudya Adi Wardana
PY  - 2023
DA  - 2023/04/30
TI  - Anticipating the Scarcity of Food Commodity to Sufficient Availability for the Community in East Java with a Comparison Approach to Forecasting Artificial Neural Networks and Exponential Smoothing
BT  - Proceedings of the 2022 Brawijaya International Conference (BIC 2022)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 529
EP  - 540
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-140-1_53
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-140-1_53
ID  - Widodo2023
ER  -