Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate

Authors

Paul Morgan^{1, 4, *,} , Cyleen Morgan^2, , Chieh-Wen Ed Hsu², Biru Yang³

¹Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Belize, Belmopan City, Belize

²Institute of International Management, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan

³Houston Department of Health and Human Services, Houston, TX, USA

⁴Department of General Medicine, Karl Hushner Memorial Hospital, Belize City, Belize

^*Corresponding author. Email: buddymorgan@gmail.com

DOI

10.2991/dsahmj.k.210531.001How to use a DOI?

Keywords

COVID-19; Markov model; mortality rate; wavelength; undetected cases; Belize

Abstract

Developing countries such as Belize have been facing profound challenges in their quest to effectively track cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and contain the pandemic within their own territory. We assume that at the heights of a COVID-19 wave the number of daily reported cases are substantially lower (often under-reported) than the true number of cases that exist and are reported on a daily basis. Here, we attempt to quantitatively derive the number of daily undetected cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Belize. We also used the Markov’s Model to correlate the current mortality rate in Belize with the reported incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Belize. We also proposed a differential mathematical model for estimating a dynamic mortality rate. Finally, we demonstrated the ability to estimate the wavelength and amplitude of a COVID-19 wave. Nations worldwide can anticipate two COVID-19 waves annually with an average of 3 months apart. How vaccines and emerging variants potentially skew the amplitude of a COVID-19 wave requires further inquiry. Our findings are therefore relevant to all countries in their quest to develop and implement swift and versatile national healthcare response measures. The present study, however, is particularly relevant to the countries with underdeveloped healthcare systems. These countries often experience economic and resource challenges around building an effective COVID-19 surveillance system to test and report daily COVID-19 cases.

Copyright

© 2021 Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Group. Publishing services by Atlantis Press International B.V.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - JOUR
AU  - Paul Morgan
AU  - Cyleen Morgan
AU  - Chieh-Wen Ed Hsu
AU  - Biru Yang
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/06/14
TI  - Estimating the Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Belize Based on Mortality Rate
JO  - Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Journal
SP  - 88
EP  - 92
VL  - 3
IS  - 3
SN  - 2590-3349
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/dsahmj.k.210531.001
DO  - 10.2991/dsahmj.k.210531.001
ID  - Morgan2021
ER  -