Modeling and Forecasting Gross Domestic Product in Different Regions of China
- DOI
- 10.2991/assehr.k.211215.055How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- GDP; ECM; Cointegration test; ARIMA
- Abstract
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an important indicator to measure a country’s economic operation in a certain period. By understanding the speed and quality of economic development, it plays a guiding role in policy formulation and infrastructure planning. This article selects sample data of fixed asset investment in various regions from 1990 to 2017, per capita years of education in each region from 1990 to 2017, and GDP of each region from 1990 to 2019 to predict the GDP of each region from 2020 to 2050. The modeling ideas are as follows: firstly, through the cointegration test, it is judged that the regional GDP model with fixed asset investment and per capita education years as explanatory variables has a long-term equilibrium relationship. Secondly, the ECM is established, and the ARIMA model is used to fit the predictive values of the explanatory variables. Finally, the predictive value of the explanatory variables is used to calculate the GDP of each region. Result: the GDP of all regions is on the rise, and GDP maintains stable and rapid development; the average years of education per capita has become an influencing factor for economic growth, and investment in fixed assets is still an important means of stimulating the economy. Conclusion: the government should properly adjust the investment structure of fixed assets, cultivate scientific and technological innovation talents, develop knowledge-based economy and promote better economic development.
- Copyright
- © 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Lingyun Duan AU - Ziyuan Liu AU - Wen Yu AU - Wei Chen AU - Dongyan Jin AU - Jiajia Liu AU - Han Zhou AU - Suhua Sun AU - Ruixi Dai PY - 2021 DA - 2021/12/15 TI - Modeling and Forecasting Gross Domestic Product in Different Regions of China BT - Proceedings of the 7th Annual International Conference on Social Science and Contemporary Humanity Development (SSCHD 2021) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 300 EP - 304 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211215.055 DO - 10.2991/assehr.k.211215.055 ID - Duan2021 ER -