Analysis and Forecasting of Ukraine's Economic Development Cycle

DOI

10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.18How to use a DOI?

Keywords

cycle, cyclicity, economic development, model, index, equilibrium, forecast

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify a new cyclic stage of Ukraine economic development and its forecasting. Objectives of the study are: determination of development cycles in different sectors of Ukraine economy and its general trend, construction of economic and mathematical model for forecasting the development cycle of the national economy. Research methods are: dialectic, complex and systematic approaches, induction and deduction, taxonomic analysis, mathematical gnostic analysis, graphical method. The main results of the study are proposed indexes for assessing economic cyclicity and created a model for forecasting the index of Ukraine economic development. The structure of the economic development cycle has been determined. It includes: equilibrium of development, equilibrium of crisis, their static states and transient stage of bifurcations. Indexes are proposed for assessing cyclicality in agriculture, industry, construction, trade, and consumption and investment processes. The results of the analysis showed a distorted economic structure and Ukraine’s doom to shock. The economic and mathematical model for forecasting of Ukraine economic development index depending on the dynamics of industries, consumption processes and investments is constructed. The toolkit for forecasting economic processes has evolved. The outlook for the economic development cycle in Ukraine has shown a likely deepening recession if the state’s economic policy does not change. The results of the study are aimed at improving economic management. The use of the economic and mathematical model for estimating Ukraine economic development index allows improving the objective analytical substantiation of decisions in the sphere state’s economic policy.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Oleksandr Baranovskyi
AU  - Tetiana Hudz
AU  - Nataliia Mirko
PY  - 2019/09
DA  - 2019/09
TI  - Analysis and Forecasting of Ukraine's Economic Development Cycle
BT  - Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Strategies, Models and Technologies of Economic Systems Management (SMTESM 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 87
EP  - 92
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.18
DO  - 10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.18
ID  - Baranovskyi2019/09
ER  -