The Approach to Probabilistic Prediction of Pipelines Safety for Quantitative Rationale Preventive Measures of Control during Design and Operation
Authors
Andrey Kostogryzov, Leonid Grigoriev, Sergey Golovin, Andrey Nistratov, George Nistratov, Igor Zubarev
Corresponding Author
Andrey Kostogryzov
Available Online April 2019.
- DOI
- 10.2991/smont-19.2019.35How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- analysis, diagnostic; model; monitoring; prediction; probability; system; technology
- Abstract
The approach to probabilistic prediction of pipelines safety is proposed. The probability to lose “acceptable safety” may be predicted by modeling. The approach allows to estimate quantitative levels of risks, reveal "bottlenecks" and define rational recommendations to system preventive measures. The possibilities for revealing new latent effects for a given period “in future” and for quantitative rationale preventive measures of control during design and operation are demonstrated by examples.
- Copyright
- © 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Andrey Kostogryzov AU - Leonid Grigoriev AU - Sergey Golovin AU - Andrey Nistratov AU - George Nistratov AU - Igor Zubarev PY - 2019/04 DA - 2019/04 TI - The Approach to Probabilistic Prediction of Pipelines Safety for Quantitative Rationale Preventive Measures of Control during Design and Operation BT - Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Modeling, Simulation, Optimization and Numerical Techniques (SMONT 2019) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 158 EP - 161 SN - 1951-6851 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/smont-19.2019.35 DO - 10.2991/smont-19.2019.35 ID - Kostogryzov2019/04 ER -