Mathematical Model of the COVID-19 Epidemic

DOI

10.2991/assehr.k.201105.012How to use a DOI?

Keywords

mathematical model, epidemiological model COVID-19, SEIRD-model, SIRD-model, differential equation system

Abstract

The article deals with the construction of a mathematical model of the epidemic of COVID-19 using data from Hubei Province (China) using the SEIRD-model. SEIRD-model allows you to take into account the ability of infected individuals to contagion others in the latent period of the disease progression, which is very important because it means that the disease spreads covertly. The model curve of SEIRD-model is built with assumptions that do not change its form essentially and do not affect the model. Indexes of SEIRD-model reproduction in latent and active periods differ in size and differ from the index of SIRD-model reproduction in a smaller direction, but these values aren’t compatible with known data. Analyzing the acquired information, it can be concluded that in order to reduce the number of patients and to get out of the epidemic it is necessary to put under restraint the inflow of susceptible individuals into the group; to introduce quarantine measures or artificially immunize susceptible individuums and develop treatment measures to reduce mortality.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - A.E. Martianova
AU  - V.Yu. Kuznetsova
AU  - I.M. Azhmukhamedov
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/11/06
TI  - Mathematical Model of the COVID-19 Epidemic
BT  - Proceedings of the Research Technologies of Pandemic Coronavirus Impact (RTCOV 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 63
EP  - 67
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.201105.012
DO  - 10.2991/assehr.k.201105.012
ID  - Martianova2020
ER  -