Prediction of Future Drought in Shandong Province Under Different RCPs Scenarios

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.021How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Drought, Prediction, RCPs, CMIP5

Abstract

Climate change, characterized by rising temperature, aggravating drought and increasing extreme weather events, will greatly threaten the future social and economic development. Therefore, based on CMIP5 data, the future drought of Shandong Province under different RCPs scenarios (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) was calculated by SPI index, including temporal change trend, mutation analysis and spatial change trend, so as to provide reference for disaster prevention and mitigation. The results showed that ①the Multi-Model Ensemble Mean was better than the single model for the CMIP5 data. ②In temporal, from 2016 to 2099, there was a weak wetting trend under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, which were 0.039/10a and 0.184/10a, respectively. The difference is that drought / wetness occurred alternately under RCP 4.5 scenario, while drought almost continued before 2050s under RCP8.5 scenario, and there was almost no drought after 2050s. Therefore, attention should be paid to flood. It was found that there was no obvious mutation point in RCP4.5 scenario, but a mutation in RCP 8.5 scenario at 2046, with a wetting trend. ③Spatially, the northern and eastern parts of Shandong Province were more wetter under the RCP 4.5 scenario, while the northwest part was wetter under the RCP 8.5 scenario.

Copyright

© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yongbin Bao
AU  - Jiquan Zhang
AU  - Ari Guna
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/04/12
TI  - Prediction of Future Drought in Shandong Province Under Different RCPs Scenarios
BT  - Proceedings of the 9th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 133
EP  - 138
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.021
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.021
ID  - Bao2021
ER  -