Dynamic Evaluation and Regionalization of Maize Drought Vulnerability in the Midwest of Jilin Province

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.010How to use a DOI?

Keywords

maize, vulnerability evaluation model, growth stage, entropy combination weight method, regionalization map

Abstract

Drought vulnerability analysis of crops can build a bridge between hazard factors and disasters and become the main tool to mitigate the impact of drought. However, the resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. In this paper, the daily meteorological data, corn yield data, social economic data and other data of 9 meteorological stations in central and western Jilin Province from 1985 to 2015 are used. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability based on the definition in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) report. By selecting 10 indicators, the drought disaster vulnerability assessment model is established from four aspects. In order to verify our model, we present a case study of maize drought vulnerability in the Midwest of the Jilin Province. Our analysis reveals the relationship between each single factor evaluation indicator and drought vulnerability, as well as each indicator to every other indicator. The results show that the drought disturbing degree in different growth periods increases from the central part of the Jilin Province to the western part of the Jilin Province. The sensitivity degree showed an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. The places with the strongest self-recovery ability are mainly concentrated in Changchun, Siping, Baicheng, and the other area. The ability to adjust to drought in each growth period is weak and crop yield reduction caused by drought is easy to create. Environmental adaptability is closely related to the social and economic situation every year, so it changes greatly and is flexible. Areas with strong drought vulnerability are mainly concentrated in Baicheng, Tongyu, and Qianguo. In order to verify and test the applicability of the model, regression analysis was made between the vulnerability index and the yield reduction rate of corn in three typical drought years, and it was found that there was a linear correlation between the two, and each growth period passed the significance F test of α=0.05, which indicated that the constructed model could reasonably evaluate and divide the drought vulnerability of corn. The research results can provide a certain basis for risk assessment, early warning, and disaster prevention and mitigation of agricultural drought disaster in the research area.

Copyright

© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Ying Guo
AU  - Jiquan Zhang
AU  - Rui Wang
AU  - Zhijun Tong
AU  - Xingpeng Liu
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/04/12
TI  - Dynamic Evaluation and Regionalization of Maize Drought Vulnerability in the Midwest of Jilin Province
BT  - Proceedings of the 9th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 67
EP  - 73
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.010
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.210409.010
ID  - Guo2021
ER  -