The Seismic Hazard Estimate of the Manila Trench Subduction Zone based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution

DOI

10.2991/rac-16.2016.114How to use a DOI?

Keywords

The Generalized Pareto Distribution;threshold;upper bound magnitude;return level; Manila Trench subduction zone

Abstract

The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is a distribution model of the generalized extreme value theory. The author choose the Manila trench subduction zone as a potential source area, to establish its seismic hazard estimation model based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, by fitting magnitude data which larger than a specific threshold in a certain period. Both the return level of strong earthquake and the upper bound magnitude for that subduction zone are estimated, as well as their uncertainties are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the upper bound magnitude of the Manila Trench subduction zone is 9.2, the magnitude return level expectation of 10 years,50 years,100 years and 200 years is 7.6,7.9,8.0,8.2.respectively.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Jianwei Tian
AU  - Zhe Liu
AU  - Luchuan Ren
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - The Seismic Hazard Estimate of the Manila Trench Subduction Zone based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution
BT  - Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 706
EP  - 711
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.114
DO  - 10.2991/rac-16.2016.114
ID  - Tian2016/11
ER  -