Grey forecasting of flood disaster and characteristics of summer grading-precipitation in Togtoh County

DOI

10.2991/rac-16.2016.47How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Togtoh County precipitation flood disaster grey forecasting

Abstract

Flood disaster is one of the meteorological disasters which has a great frequency and is more serious in China. Because of the geographical location of Togtoh County, the rainfall is often concentrated in the summer, so the summer rainfall in the region has a direct impact on the occurrence of floods. Based on Togtoh County's daily precipitation observational data during the period of 1993-2012 in summer, the secular trend and features of grading-precipitation's rain days and rainfall is studied. In addition, the year of flood was predicted. It is pointed out that there is a slight decreasing trend in summer rainfall and rainfall days in Togtoh County in recent 20 years, only the heavy rain and heavy rain days had an increasing trend. Prediction results show that the summer rainfall in Togtoh county from 2021 to 2022 is more than 246mm, that is, the abundance of water in summer, it is very easy to occur flood disaster.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Qimuge Qimuge
AU  - Buren Buren
AU  - Xiaojun Huang
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - Grey forecasting of flood disaster and characteristics of summer grading-precipitation in Togtoh County
BT  - Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 292
EP  - 299
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.47
DO  - 10.2991/rac-16.2016.47
ID  - Qimuge2016/11
ER  -