Risk Assessment of Typhoon Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province Based on the Improved Fuzzy Bayesian Network

DOI

10.2991/rac-16.2016.35How to use a DOI?

Keywords

risk assessment; information diffusion; storm surge; Bayesian network

Abstract

To expand insufficient information resource and express fuzzy uncertainty for risk assessment, a new Bayesian network was proposed in this paper. Information diffusion model and triangle fuzzy values were employed to improve the prior probability, using Monte Carlo method to establish the conditional probability tables with the help of AHP. According to the data of typhoon storm surge disasters, economic, cultural and other characteristics, the zoning map of storm surge risk based on Grid and GIS was realized to study disaster risk, vulnerability and capacity of disaster prevention in Guangdong. It showed the results tallied with the practical situation, which may provide the help to reduce the loss caused by storm surge in China.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Chengzu Bai
AU  - Ren Zhang
AU  - JianQi Zhang
AU  - Ting Wang
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - Risk Assessment of Typhoon Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province Based on the Improved Fuzzy Bayesian Network
BT  - Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 217
EP  - 223
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.35
DO  - 10.2991/rac-16.2016.35
ID  - Bai2016/11
ER  -