A Modeling Technology of Aircraft Landing Safety Prediction under the Extreme Weather Conditions in the Future Based on Cloud Theory

DOI

10.2991/rac-16.2016.23How to use a DOI?

Keywords

extreme weather; risk assessment; cloud theory; aircraft taking off and landing

Abstract

This paper focus on hazards, vulnerability and prevention ability three aspects to establish a model for evaluating the safety of aircraft take-off and landing, choosing high winds, low cloud and low visibility as the hazards. Among them, the trend of wind speed is obtained directly from the CMIP5 multi-model set data, and the cloud base height is replaced by the calculation of the lifting condensation level. For the prediction of visibility, this paper proposes a time series forecasting method based on the cloud theory, combined with a variety of meteorological elements of the airport ground. The vulnerability and prevention ability based on the security data of the local airport. Finally, we use the model to assess the risk of three different types of aircraft take-off and landing from 2016 to 2020. The results showed that: when other conditions remain unchanged, the weather and climate are not conducive to the normal operation of the airport in the future, and the different types are performed differently in the adaptability to climate change.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yangjun Wang
AU  - Ren Zhang
AU  - Shuang Shen
AU  - Zhenghua Wu
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - A Modeling Technology of Aircraft Landing Safety Prediction under the Extreme Weather Conditions in the Future Based on Cloud Theory
BT  - Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 146
EP  - 150
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.23
DO  - 10.2991/rac-16.2016.23
ID  - Wang2016/11
ER  -