Risk Analysis of Mongolian Erannis Jacobsoni Djak's Invasion into the Inner Mongolia Area

DOI

10.2991/rac-16.2016.15How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Erannis jacobsoni Djak; Invasion risk; maximum entropy(Maxent) niche model; environmental variables

Abstract

Erannis jacobsoni Djak is the most important forest pest in Mongolia and has seriously destructive effect to forest ecological system. It is important to study the invasion risk of Inner Mongolia, which is of great significance for the effective prevention of cross-border disaster. Based on it, firstly, this study discussed the risk of Mongolia Erannis jacobsoni Djak spreading into Inner Mongolia; Then using the field survey point data of Mongolia Erannis jacobsoni Djak and environmental variables data such as biological climatic factors, altitude, forest, predicted the potential suitable risk areas distribution of this pest in Inner Mongolia by means of maximum entropy(Maxent) niche model and GIS technology. The result shows that:Erannis jacobsoni Djak's trend of migration basically tallies with the prevailing direction (form Northwest to Southeast) of airflow in Mongolian Plateau. The port freight volume of Inner Mongolia to Mongolia increased year by year, which will cause the risk of Erannis jacobsoni Djak spreading into Inner Mongolia with the flow and wood packing;The pests in Inner Mongolia potential suitable risk areas are mainly distributed in the majority of Aershan city in Xingan League,the south of New Barag Left Banner in Hulunbuir,the middlesouth of Yakeshi,the southwest of Oroqen Autonomous Banner and the south of Evenk Autonomous Banner, of which the largest distribution area of extremely high and high suitable risk areas in the Aershan city are 40380.21 hectares and 251409.34 hectares respectively. The environmental variables that have important effects on invasion risk of Erannis jacobsoni Djak included forest,mean temperature of warmest quarter,annual precipitation, max temperature of warmest month and min temperature of coldest month.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Xiaojun Huang
AU  - Yuhai Bao
AU  - Altanchimeg D.
AU  - Ren Bu
AU  - Miao Fu
AU  - Mei Yong
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - Risk Analysis of Mongolian Erannis Jacobsoni Djak's Invasion into the Inner Mongolia Area
BT  - Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 98
EP  - 104
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/rac-16.2016.15
DO  - 10.2991/rac-16.2016.15
ID  - Huang2016/11
ER  -