Proceedings of the 2024 3rd International Conference on Public Service, Economic Management and Sustainable Development (PESD 2024)

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ARIMA Model Analysis of COVID-19 Mortality Rate Changes: Evaluation of Pfizer Vaccine Effectiveness

Authors
Weiqun Xu1, *
1School Of Health Policy & Management, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China
*Corresponding author. Email: xuweiqunxwq@stu.njmu.edu.cn
Corresponding Author
Weiqun Xu
Available Online 19 December 2024.
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-598-0_22How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Covid-19; Death rate; ARIMA
Abstract

COVID-19, caused by a novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, is an infectious disease. The virus was initially identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and rapidly disseminated worldwide, resulting in a widespread global pandemic and substantial loss of life. To examine whether the Pfizer vaccine had a significant effect on the reduction of mortality from CDC by analysing the difference in mortality rates before and after Pfizer vaccination of confirmed cases of COVID-19 An autoregressive summated moving average (ARIMA) was constructed based on data released by the CDC. The implicit assumption of this model is that the predictions of the model are treated as a “control group” containing only the time trend that is not affected by the vaccine, and that the experimental group is the true value affected by the vaccine. Two models, ARIMA (2,1,1) and ARIMA (10,2,3), showed an increasing difference between predicted and actual values. The mortality rate of COVID-19 had a substantial decrease following widespread administration of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. This study aims to examine if the widespread distribution of the Pfizer vaccine has resulted in a decrease in the fatality rate of COVID-19 infections.

Copyright
© 2024 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2024 3rd International Conference on Public Service, Economic Management and Sustainable Development (PESD 2024)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
19 December 2024
ISBN
978-94-6463-598-0
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/978-94-6463-598-0_22How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2024 The Author(s)
Open Access
Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Weiqun Xu
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/12/19
TI  - ARIMA Model Analysis of COVID-19 Mortality Rate Changes: Evaluation of Pfizer Vaccine Effectiveness
BT  - Proceedings of the 2024 3rd International Conference on Public Service, Economic Management and Sustainable Development (PESD 2024)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 215
EP  - 223
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-598-0_22
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-598-0_22
ID  - Xu2024
ER  -