Modeling and Simulation on Complex System Life Cycle Risk Dynamic Evolution

DOI

10.2991/msam-15.2015.21How to use a DOI?

Keywords

complex system; system life cycle; risk evolution; system dynamics; modeling and simulation

Abstract

Complex system life cycle management is system engineering involving high technology, high investment and high risk. This paper studied risk evolution and risk level distributions on different stages during complex system life cycle. Taking into account risk propagation and feedback influence, the risk evolution of complex system life cycle was modeled based on system dynamics. The risk levels distributed on all stages of system life cycle were simulated by system dynamic model. The simulation results are helpful to understand that the initial stages of life cycle are more flexible and valuable to change for risk management. Additionally, sensitivity analysis illuminates that different system types of risk have different risk distributions among stages of life cycle and hereby different emphasis of risk management during life cycle should be considered according to different system types of risk.

Copyright

© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Yifan Xu
AU  - Jianwei Lv
AU  - Peng Di
AU  - Zongren Xie
PY  - 2015/08
DA  - 2015/08
TI  - Modeling and Simulation on Complex System Life Cycle Risk Dynamic Evolution
BT  - Proceedings of the 2015 International Conference on Modeling, Simulation and Applied Mathematics
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 94
EP  - 98
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/msam-15.2015.21
DO  - 10.2991/msam-15.2015.21
ID  - Xu2015/08
ER  -