The Development of the SARIMA Model for Flood Disaster Resilience

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-088-6_21How to use a DOI?

Keywords

SARIMA Model; Correlation Coefficient; Volume Error; Drainage Evaluation; Flood Risk Resilience

Abstract

Some agencies in the world warned that the recent flood disaster has been getting worse all over the world. Engineers have studied flooding and its impact with various simulation models. Yet, there is no model considered the best for all estimations of flood disasters in the future. In this paper, the authors propose a procedure to develop the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The model is for generating future rainfall. In this paper, the authors use the procedure for drainage evaluation in an effort of flood risk resilience. The authors use the rainfall data of the Monjok Station from 2008 to 2018 in the demonstration of the proposed procedure to generate 20 years of rainfall data from 2008 to 2028. This paper evaluates the flood resilience of the Wahidin drainage system. The authors use the Correlation Coefficient and Volume Error to determine the best model. The results showed that the best SARIMA model was (0, 1, 1) with a Correlation Coefficient of 0.71 and a Volume Error of 13%. Based on the model, the 10-year return period of future rainfall is 137.60 mm. This rainfall will cause runoff in the Wahidin 01, 02, and 03 of 4.35 m3/sec, 1.22 m3/sec, and 9.496 m3/sec, respectively. However, because the capacity of the three canals is only 1.32 m3/s, only Wahidin 02 canal is safe until 2028. Wahidin 01 and 03 channels are not.

Copyright

© 2023 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Heri Sulistiyono
AU  - Faisal Irshad Khan
AU  - Humairo Saidah
AU  - Ery Setiawan
AU  - I Wayan Yasa
AU  - I Wayan Suteja
AU  - Salehudin
AU  - I Dewa Gede Jaya Negara
PY  - 2022
DA  - 2022/12/23
TI  - The Development of the SARIMA Model for Flood Disaster Resilience
BT  - Proceedings of the First Mandalika International Multi-Conference on Science and Engineering 2022, MIMSE 2022 (Civil and Architecture)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 211
EP  - 222
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-088-6_21
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-088-6_21
ID  - Sulistiyono2022
ER  -