Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Mechanical, Electronic, Control and Automation Engineering (MECAE 2018)

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Evaluating System of a Country's Development Potential and the Analysis of Climate's Impact

Authors
Ning Fang
Corresponding Author
Ning Fang
Available Online March 2018.
DOI
10.2991/mecae-18.2018.27How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Fragile State Index, Evaluating system, Entropy Weight Method, GRNN, Climate change.
Abstract

In this paper, fragility which is measured by Fragile State Index is used to represent a country's development potential. Then, we establish an evaluating system to measure a country's fragility based on GRNN model and Entropy weight method. Besides, we analyze the impact of climate change on the results. And taking Afghanistan as an example, we analyze the country's fragility. First, we establish the basic structure of evaluating system based on AHP. Then, the Entropy Weight Method is applied to solve the correlation between the principle layer and the indicator layer, while the GRNN model is used to investigate the relation between target layer and principle layer. In order to find the influence caused by the climate change in Afghanistan, we introduce a sub-indicator layer under the indicator layer, and the relationship between these two layers is solved based on Multiple Linear Regression. Finally, we get a comparison between the situation with climate change and without climate change. We find that in the situation that climate change is absent, Afghanistan's vulnerability is significantly better than the situation with climate change. Therefore, Afghanistan should step up its efforts to protect the environment in order to improve its vulnerability and achieve better development.

Copyright
© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Mechanical, Electronic, Control and Automation Engineering (MECAE 2018)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
March 2018
ISBN
978-94-6252-493-4
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/mecae-18.2018.27How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Ning Fang
PY  - 2018/03
DA  - 2018/03
TI  - Evaluating System of a Country's Development Potential and the Analysis of Climate's Impact
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Mechanical, Electronic, Control and Automation Engineering (MECAE 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 148
EP  - 151
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/mecae-18.2018.27
DO  - 10.2991/mecae-18.2018.27
ID  - Fang2018/03
ER  -