Proceedings of the International Conference on Logistics, Engineering, Management and Computer Science

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Study of Displacement Prediction of Landslide Based on time Series Analysis

Authors
Fuyou Liu, Fengbo Liu, Yong Liu, Yani Guo
Corresponding Author
Fuyou Liu
Available Online July 2015.
DOI
10.2991/lemcs-15.2015.120How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Landslide; Displacement prediction; Roll GM(1;1) grey model; Autoregressive AR(p) model
Abstract

Based on the owned displacement monitoring data and displacement evolution of landslide, the total displacement can be divided into trend term displacement, which is controlled by its own geological conditions and periodic term displacement affected by external factors. Then the displacement prediction model of landslide can be established by time series analysis. Double moving average method is used to separate the trend term displacement and periodic term displacement of landslide. On this basis, roll GM (1 1) grey model is used to forecast the rend term displacement ; and autoregressive AR (p) model is used to forecast the periodic term displacement. Total displacement is obtained by adding the calculated predictive displacement value of each sub-stack. Taking baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area for example it is shown that the result could better reflect the development trend of landslide based on the comparative analysis of the measured and predicted displacement-time curves. The results demonstrate that the established landslide displacement prediction model is feasible and effective in the landslide displacement prediction.

Copyright
© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the International Conference on Logistics, Engineering, Management and Computer Science
Series
Advances in Intelligent Systems Research
Publication Date
July 2015
ISBN
978-94-6252-102-5
ISSN
1951-6851
DOI
10.2991/lemcs-15.2015.120How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

risenwbib
TY  - CONF
AU  - Fuyou Liu
AU  - Fengbo Liu
AU  - Yong Liu
AU  - Yani Guo
PY  - 2015/07
DA  - 2015/07
TI  - Study of Displacement Prediction of Landslide Based on time Series Analysis
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Logistics, Engineering, Management and Computer Science
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 624
EP  - 628
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/lemcs-15.2015.120
DO  - 10.2991/lemcs-15.2015.120
ID  - Liu2015/07
ER  -