General Election Hatena: The First Political Prediction Market in Japan

DOI

10.2991/jcis.2006.63How to use a DOI?

Keywords

prediction market, election, market design

Abstract

Last year, a Tokyo-based internet venture firm, Hatena Co., ran a political prediction market that was designed to predict the result of the General Election of the Lower House of the Diet, held on September 11, 2005. The market showed reasonable predictive ability that was comparable with the predictions of major newspapers and experts. In this paper, we summarize what happened at the first political prediction market in Japan, General Election Hatena, and discuss the future potential of prediction markets in Japan.

Copyright

© 2006, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Hiroshi Yamaguchi
PY  - 2006/10
DA  - 2006/10
TI  - General Election Hatena: The First Political Prediction Market in Japan
BT  - Proceedings of the 9th Joint International Conference on Information Sciences (JCIS-06)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SN  - 1951-6851
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.63
DO  - 10.2991/jcis.2006.63
ID  - Yamaguchi2006/10
ER  -