Study on Tourist Volume Forecasting Based on ABA-SVR Model Within Network Environment

DOI

10.2991/jahp-18.2018.94How to use a DOI?

Keywords

consumer search; adaptive bat algorithm; Support Vector Regression; tourist volume; forecast accuracy

Abstract

The search of consumers under internet environment reflects the potential tourism demands of tourists. This paper takes Sanya as an example and attempts to use the traffic flow data related to Sanya tourism from August 2009 to March 2016 and the network search data to construct the input sets of SVR model. And this paper also forecasts the domestic tourists received in Sanya by applying the ABA-SVR model, thereinto the Adaptive Bat Algorithm, ABA is used to optimize the free parameters of Support Vector Regression model, SVR. The 12-month forecasting results and the significance testing show that this method can effectively improve the forecast accuracy of the model. The forecast results can provide necessary reference for the macro-administration of policy-making departments related to tourism.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Binru Zhang
AU  - Yulian Pu
PY  - 2018/08
DA  - 2018/08
TI  - Study on Tourist Volume Forecasting Based on ABA-SVR Model Within Network Environment
BT  - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Judicial, Administrative and Humanitarian Problems of State Structures and Economic Subjects (JAHP 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 460
EP  - 466
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jahp-18.2018.94
DO  - 10.2991/jahp-18.2018.94
ID  - Zhang2018/08
ER  -