Research on Shanxi's CO2 Emissions Peak Based on STIRPAT Model

DOI

10.2991/jahp-17.2017.59How to use a DOI?

Keywords

CO2 emissions; STIRPAT model; peak forecast

Abstract

The global greenhouse gas emissions peak has become a sensitive issue in the area of international climate governance. It is of great significance to study Shanxi's CO2 emissions peak which affects China's CO2 emissions peak target achieve by 2030 or earlier. Based on the brief analysis of the status quo of the social economy and the carbon emissions in Shanxi, this paper firstly makes the regression for the data of the carbon emissions, population, GDP per capita and carbon intensity from 2005 to 2014 based on STIRPAT model. Then, we set up 8 scenarios to estimate the peak time and peak amount of Shanxi's CO2 emissions. If the rate of decline in carbon intensity is relatively faster than the rate of growth in per capita GDP, Shanxi's CO2 emissions peak around 2030. Otherwise, it wound not peak before 2040. In order to peak earlier, Shanxi should focus on improving energy saving technology and increasing the use of clean energy.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Jianhui Cong
AU  - Limei Qin
AU  - Xiaopei Wang
AU  - Wenmei Kang
AU  - Yixuan Zhang
AU  - Qingyan Liu
PY  - 2017/09
DA  - 2017/09
TI  - Research on Shanxi's CO2 Emissions Peak Based on STIRPAT Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Judicial, Administrative and Humanitarian Problems of State Structures and Economic Subjects (JAHP 2017)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 283
EP  - 289
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/jahp-17.2017.59
DO  - 10.2991/jahp-17.2017.59
ID  - Cong2017/09
ER  -