Dynamic Assessment of Navigational Safety Risk of Ship Lock Project Based on Entropy Value Method and Markov Chain

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-514-0_27How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Ship lock engineering; Entropy method; Markov chain; Navigation safety; Risk assessment

Abstract

Aiming at the characteristics of complex traffic environment and dynamic change of insecurity factors in the area of construction while navigating the ship lock project, a navigation safety risk assessment method based on the combination of entropy value method and Markov chain is proposed to assess the dynamic change of navigation safety status of the ship lock project. First of all, through expert consultation and reviewing specifications and other methods, the navigation safety risk factors of the ship lock project are sorted out and analysed, and a six-aspect safety assessment index system is established, including the intensity characteristics of the ship traffic flow, the speed characteristics of the traffic flow, the behavioural characteristics of the traffic flow, the indicators of the navigation conditions, and the indicators of the working conditions, etc., and the initial weight is determined by using the hierarchical analysis method. Then, the entropy value method is utilized to correct the initial weights and improve the objectivity and scientific of the weights of individual evaluation indicators. Secondly, based on Markov chain, the quantitative grading assessment model of navigation safety risk is established to carry out the dynamic assessment analysis of navigation safety risk. The selected case analysis shows that the results objectively reflect the risk level of the lock project and its dynamic changes, and gives suggestions for navigation safety control measures during the construction of the lock project, which verifies the practicality and effectiveness of the assessment method.

Copyright

© 2024 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Quanhua Zhu
AU  - Wanli Tian
AU  - Zhongguang Wu
AU  - Zongwei Chen
AU  - Xiaojun Sun
PY  - 2024
DA  - 2024/09/28
TI  - Dynamic Assessment of Navigational Safety Risk of Ship Lock Project Based on Entropy Value Method and Markov Chain
BT  - Proceedings of the 2024 7th International Symposium on Traffic Transportation and Civil Architecture (ISTTCA 2024)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 246
EP  - 266
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-514-0_27
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-514-0_27
ID  - Zhu2024
ER  -