Impact of Climate Change on National Instability

DOI

10.2991/isss-18.2018.145How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Fuzzy evaluation; climate change; extreme rainfall.

Abstract

Nowadays, the connection between a country’s instability and the climate change and is getting more and more people’s attention gradually. For this problem, we propose an easy model to discuss the relationship theoretically. Due to the affecting factors are uncertain, we try to take the fuzzy evaluation model into consideration to describe the phenomenon which is corresponding to the variable factors. At the beginning, we divide the country instability into three levels, respectively unstable, normal and stable. To determine the instability of a country, we select five criteria, extreme rainfall, economy, public services, human rights and refugees as the influential factors. The refined fuzzy evaluation approach based on the criteria calculation is applied. As a result, the extreme rainfall which is related to the climate change causes indirect influence to the instability of a country. As for the economy and refugee and so on, they influence the instability of a country in different levels. To analysis whether the model presented can be applied to the smaller or lager “countries”, three countries of different scales of area are taken as the study targets. Supposing the indices about the climate change are basically the same, we use the model to calculate the instability of the three countries, and the results show the model may not work on well in smaller “countries” or larger “countries”. It may be improved by taking some more criteria which includes more characteristic of the country into account.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Junbo Lu
PY  - 2018/05
DA  - 2018/05
TI  - Impact of Climate Change on National Instability
BT  - Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Social Science (ISSS 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 707
EP  - 710
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/isss-18.2018.145
DO  - 10.2991/isss-18.2018.145
ID  - Lu2018/05
ER  -