Assessment of the Direct Economic Effect of Increasing the Retirement Age in Russia

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.097How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Russia, increasing retirement age, modeling, working-age population, GDP

Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment of direct economic effect of gradual increase of the retirement age in Russia from 2019 to 2028 by 5 years for men and women. The importance of obtaining such a quantitative assessment is substantiated and the methodology is validated. The methodology includes: 1) a three-variant forecast of the working-age population, taking into account the shift in the size of working-age population starting 2019 due to an increase in the retirement age; 2) economic and mathematical models based on production functions that allow to reliably assess the impact of the increase in the retirement age on the production of Russian GDP. Based on real statistical data, a three-variant forecast of the working-age population in Russia has been compiled, taking into account the increase in the retirement age. Analysis of the results of three variants of our prognosis showed that the increase in the retirement age not only halted the steady downward trend in the size of working-age population, but also broke the trend, indicating an increase in the size of working-age population in Russia. A study of the constructed economic and mathematical models has shown that raising the retirement age will lead to a slight increase in Russian GDP (by about 0.35% annually). Thus, without significant structural changes in the economy, the direct effect of raising the retirement age in Russia is hardly noticeable in the GDP production.

Copyright

© 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - T.P. Skufina
AU  - S.V. Baranov
AU  - V.P. Samarina
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/02/24
TI  - Assessment of the Direct Economic Effect of Increasing the Retirement Age in Russia
BT  - Proceedings of International Scientific and Practical Conference “Russia 2020 - a new reality: economy and society” (ISPCR 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 487
EP  - 490
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.097
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.210222.097
ID  - Skufina2021
ER  -