Random Event and Probability in Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes

DOI

10.2991/iscfec-18.2019.32How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Random event; Probability; Bayesian networks; Econometric model; Lag variables; f-lag variables

Abstract

The article substantiates the necessity of including future random variables in the model of economic processes, considers various concepts of types and descriptions of their probability that are different from the frequency probability. An example of the use of Bayesian subjective probability for assessing the risks of insurance is considered, and the improvement of the parameters of auto-regression models is estimated with including f-lag (future expected) variables in them.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - A.I. Bogomolov
AU  - V.P. Nevezhin
AU  - E.P. Zvyagintseva
PY  - 2019/01
DA  - 2019/01
TI  - Random Event and Probability in Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes
BT  - Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference "Far East Con" (ISCFEC 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 143
EP  - 147
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iscfec-18.2019.32
DO  - 10.2991/iscfec-18.2019.32
ID  - Bogomolov2019/01
ER  -