Tail Dependence Analysis of Extreme Fog and Haze Weather Occurring in Beijing and Tianjin Based on Copula Function and EVT

DOI

10.2991/ictim-17.2017.35How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Copula function, EVT, POT model, tail dependence analysis

Abstract

In order to quantitatively verify that there is a strong correlation between the occurrence of extreme haze in Beijing and Tianjin. First, we estimated marginal distribution functions of the occurring of extreme fog and haze weather in two cities according to the POT model. Then, conditional probability formula of upper tail was derived through combining two marginal distribution functions and Copula function. Furthermore, specific probability was calculated through conditional probability formula of upper tail, while PM2.5 concentrations of two cities is no less than given concentrations. The results showed that when the average daily PM2.5 concentrations in adjacent places increased and reached a certain threshold, the probability of extreme fog and haze weather showed an increasing trend. In the last, this paper gave some policy suggestions about promoting the integration of the prevention and treatment of air pollution in an area and reaching the level of joint prevention and coordinate governance.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yubo Ma
AU  - Guangkuo Gao
PY  - 2017/09
DA  - 2017/09
TI  - Tail Dependence Analysis of Extreme Fog and Haze Weather Occurring in Beijing and Tianjin Based on Copula Function and EVT
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Transformations and Innovations in Management (ICTIM 2017)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 465
EP  - 475
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ictim-17.2017.35
DO  - 10.2991/ictim-17.2017.35
ID  - Ma2017/09
ER  -