Evaluation on Development Trend of Distributed Power Industry in China Based on Prosperity Model

DOI

10.2991/icsshe-18.2018.93How to use a DOI?

Keywords

distributed power generation, diffusion index, prosperity index model, trend prediction

Abstract

Distributed power generation has become an important part to develop low-carbon economy, build ecological civilization and achieve sustainable development for the countries around the world. However, with the rapid development of distributed power industry in China, there is no effective means for forecasting and early warning on its development. Especially after the explosive growth of distributed wind and photovoltaic generation installed capacity, it is urgent to put forward the model to analyze and predict the industry prosperity trend, which can provide gist for the government and stakeholders when making decisions and carrying out policies. Basing on the development situation analysis of China distributed power industry; this paper establishes the evaluation index system from five dimensions including technology, policy, market, economy and the external environment. By combining set value statistical method and diffusion index model, evaluate and predict the development of distributed power industry comprehensively from qualitative and quantitative dimensions. From the case study calculation results, we can learn that currently the distributed photovoltaic (PV) market in Jiangsu is still in the prosperity stage, but a new downturn is coming. The calculation results can also provide references and suggestions for the related industry development decision makers.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Jun Dong
AU  - Rong Li
AU  - Pei Wang
AU  - Qi Zhang
PY  - 2018/09
DA  - 2018/09
TI  - Evaluation on Development Trend of Distributed Power Industry in China Based on Prosperity Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 4th International Conference on Social Science and Higher Education (ICSSHE 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 378
EP  - 384
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icsshe-18.2018.93
DO  - 10.2991/icsshe-18.2018.93
ID  - Dong2018/09
ER  -