Predicting Air Pollution Levels in Jakarta Using Vector Autoregressive Analysis

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-332-0_3How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Predicting; Air Pollution; Vector Autoregressive

Abstract

The air quality in Jakarta is a critical issue affecting public health and the environment. High levels of air pollution can lead to various health problems, including respiratory issues, cardiovascular diseases, and other health disorders. This study aims to predict air pollution levels in Jakarta using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis method on time series data of air pollution levels (AQI) and Particulate Matter (PM2.5) concentrations. VAR is a statistical model used to analyze and forecast time series data consisting of multiple interrelated variables. The research data utilized comprises daily data from IQAir website regarding the air quality index in Jakarta, spanning from August 16 to October 1, 2023. The stages in VAR model analysis consist of: (1) stationary checking and selection model, (2) parameter estimation for selected VAR model, (3) diagnostic checking with normality test, (4) model validation to evaluate the best model, (5) forecasting air pollution levels. The result of research employed VAR (2) model to predict air pollution levels in Jakarta. The VAR (2) model demonstrated stationary data, significant parameter estimates, and relatively small prediction errors, making it the most suitable choice for forecasting air pollution levels. This research will assist the government, environmental organizations, and the public in taking appropriate actions to address high levels of air pollution and protect public health. This study has significant implications for the development of more effective and sustainable air pollution control strategies in Jakarta.

Copyright

© 2023 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Khaerun Nisa Sh
AU  - Irfan Irfani
AU  - Utriweni Mukhaiyar
PY  - 2023
DA  - 2023/12/18
TI  - Predicting Air Pollution Levels in Jakarta Using Vector Autoregressive Analysis
BT  - Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics, Teaching, and Research 2023 (ICSMTR 2023)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 14
EP  - 22
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-332-0_3
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-332-0_3
ID  - Sh2023
ER  -