Proceedings of the 2016 5th International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Environment Engineering (ICSEEE 2016)

Application of the Monte Carlo Simulation in evaluating unconventional gas well economy

Authors
Nan Wang, Qun Zhao, Wei Guo, Huanrong Zang, Dexun Liu
Corresponding Author
Nan Wang
Available Online December 2016.
DOI
10.2991/icseee-16.2016.172How to use a DOI?
Keywords
Unconventional gas; Monte Carlo; index optimization; economic evaluation; decline analysis; gas price; sensitivity analysis
Abstract

This paper starts with constructing the optimal process of shale gas economic indexes through selecting suitable statistics and prediction methods to confirm the major evaluation parameters of shale gas, such as single well recoverable reserves, single well composite cost and gas price. Then, economic benefit of shale gas single well projects was evaluated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the probability distribution of the indexes that influence economic evaluation of single well projects. The sensitive factors that can influence financial internal return rate and net present value of shale gas single well projects were quantitatively analyzed. The correlations between impact factors and indexes were calculated and sorted. Finally, feasibility and risk level of single well projects were confirmed. This study determined the main factors that affect the economic performance of shale gas single well, evaluated the feasibility of shale gas single well projects, which can provide theoretical support for effectively controlling shale gas well cost, and reasonably and commercially developing shale gas reservoirs.

Copyright
© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2016 5th International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Environment Engineering (ICSEEE 2016)
Series
Advances in Engineering Research
Publication Date
December 2016
ISBN
978-94-6252-278-7
ISSN
2352-5401
DOI
10.2991/icseee-16.2016.172How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
Open Access
This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Nan Wang
AU  - Qun Zhao
AU  - Wei Guo
AU  - Huanrong Zang
AU  - Dexun Liu
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Application of the Monte Carlo Simulation in evaluating unconventional gas well economy
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 5th International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Environment Engineering (ICSEEE 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 978
EP  - 981
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icseee-16.2016.172
DO  - 10.2991/icseee-16.2016.172
ID  - Wang2016/12
ER  -