Improved short term load forecasting of power system based on ARMA model

DOI

10.2991/iconfem-16.2016.2How to use a DOI?

Keywords

ARMA model; improved recursive least square method; load forecasting; power system

Abstract

In this paper, the time series analysis method and the improved recursive least square parameter estimation method are used to realize the short-term forecasting of daily load and monthly load of electric power sys-tem based on ARMA model. The method makes up for the shortage of weighted least square method, which guarantees the robustness and convergence speed of the algorithm. It has the characteristics of clear physical concept, small calculation amount and good numerical stability. Simulation results show that the algorithm has good prediction accuracy and can be satisfied with the results.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Weiheng Wang
PY  - 2017/01
DA  - 2017/01
TI  - Improved short term load forecasting of power system based on ARMA model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Engineering Management (Iconf-EM 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 12
EP  - 19
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iconfem-16.2016.2
DO  - 10.2991/iconfem-16.2016.2
ID  - Wang2017/01
ER  -