The United States Economy in 2019: Moderate Growth, Flexible Monetary Stance and Fluctuating Financial Market

DOI

10.2991/ichssr-19.2019.140How to use a DOI?

Keywords

inflation, labor market participation, leverage ratio, neutral interest rate JEL: E24, E31, E4

Abstract

The US economy has experienced strong growth in the second half of 2018. The domestic and outside risks are about to be balanced. We have the following views on the US economy in 2019. 1) Supported by solid increase on wage, the private consumption will be the driving force of the real economy. Although the economic growth may slow down, the likelihood of entering recession is minimal, at least in the first half of the year. 2) The monetary policy in 2019 will be more flexible, highly contingent on the performance of the inflation. With the high leverage ratio in nonfinancial cooperates, the current interest rate is quit close to the neutral. 3) The 10-year Treasury yield may climb above 3 percent again and the stock market is likely to fluctuate around the preceding peak.

Copyright

© 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Shuyu Wang
PY  - 2019/05
DA  - 2019/05
TI  - The United States Economy in 2019: Moderate Growth, Flexible Monetary Stance and Fluctuating Financial Market
BT  - Proceedings of the 2019 5th International Conference on Humanities and Social Science Research (ICHSSR 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 726
EP  - 733
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/ichssr-19.2019.140
DO  - 10.2991/ichssr-19.2019.140
ID  - Wang2019/05
ER  -