Mathematical Modelling in Agricultural Systems in Indonesia: A Case Study of Modelling in Predicting Production and Consumption Corn to Reach Corn Self-Sufficiency
- DOI
- 10.2991/absr.k.210304.014How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- time series, forecasting, food security, modelling real data, corn
- Abstract
The study forecasting has been undertaken to fit different trend equations like time series models for corn and also made the future forecasts. The study was carried out in Indonesia using time series data from 1986 to 2017. Forecasting time series is a need in the agriculture sector or other fields. We present here the software R as an important tool for forecasting and especially for studying the time series models. We review the past 29 years of research into time series forecasting. Forecasting is used to analysis the past and current behaviour to forecasts the future corn production and consumption which intern provide an aid to decision-making and in planning for the future effectively and efficiently. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is the most widely used model for forecasting time series. In achieving corn self-sufficiency, there are many obstacles and challenges faced, including the decline in the rate of increase in agricultural land production, the conversion of agricultural land into non-agricultural land, sick or unproductive land, efforts to expand the area difficult and the increasing population. Agriculture is the backbone of the Indonesian economy. Corn is a very important need after rice for the food needs of the Indonesian people. This study generally aims to analyze the production and consumption of corn in Indonesia. Specifically aims to project corn production and consumption in Indonesia for the next five years (2018-2022), as well as its implications for corn self-sufficiency in Indonesia. The data used in this study is in the form of time series data for 31 years (1986 - 2017) and analyzed in forecasting Holt-Winters’ methods and data processing using Microsoft Office Excel and R Software. The results of the study obtained results of the projection of corn production and consumption in Indonesia in 2018-2022 shows that Indonesia has a surplus of corn until 2022 so the government must be able to maintain it.
- Copyright
- © 2021, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Romli Ardie AU - Mukhtar AU - Cecep Anwar Hadi Firdos Santosa AU - Sholih AU - Nana Hendracipta PY - 2021 DA - 2021/03/04 TI - Mathematical Modelling in Agricultural Systems in Indonesia: A Case Study of Modelling in Predicting Production and Consumption Corn to Reach Corn Self-Sufficiency BT - Joint proceedings of the 2nd and the 3rd International Conference on Food Security Innovation (ICFSI 2018-2019) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 73 EP - 82 SN - 2468-5747 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/absr.k.210304.014 DO - 10.2991/absr.k.210304.014 ID - Ardie2021 ER -