Analysis of the Main Causes of the Imbalance of International Payments and Risk Prediction

DOI

10.2991/icefs-17.2017.59How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Balance of international payments, Risk forecast, Principal component analysis

Abstract

As an important variable of national economy, the balance of payments reflects the transnational flow of physical resources. Therefore, it is very important to predict the risk of the imbalance of international payments. Based on the balance of payments data from 2003 to 2012 in China, this paper uses the method of principal component analysis to predict the risk of China's international balance of payments. According to the analysis, three principal components are obtained, which show the relationship among the balance of payments risk and the trade balance, the money supply and the foreign net assets. Based on the results of principal component analysis and the international balance of payments risk index and its critical value, this paper provides some suggestions for the management of the imbalance risk of international payments in china.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Shaowei Huang
AU  - Jixiang Zhang
PY  - 2017/01
DA  - 2017/01
TI  - Analysis of the Main Causes of the Imbalance of International Payments and Risk Prediction
BT  - Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference on Economics, Finance and Statistics (ICEFS 2017)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 449
EP  - 455
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icefs-17.2017.59
DO  - 10.2991/icefs-17.2017.59
ID  - Huang2017/01
ER  -