Time series analysis of China's service trade based on ARIMA model

DOI

10.2991/icefs-17.2017.47How to use a DOI?

Keywords

service trade, ARIMA model, trade forecast

Abstract

Since the international trade and global development environment tend to be severe, all of the countries are looking for new economic growth points. Therefore, service trade is widely concerned. Now the opportunities and challenges of trade in services coexist. To study the development of China's service trade, the ARIMA model was used to analyze the time series data of China's service trade volume from 1982 to 2015. R was used to build the model. From the model checking, ARIMA(2, 3, 2) was selected. With the predict of ARIMA(2, 3, 2), the projected value for 2016 is $ 749.9989 billion, so that China's trade in services will be stable development. Some policy recommendations were also made to improve China's service trade.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Pengliang Wang
PY  - 2017/01
DA  - 2017/01
TI  - Time series analysis of China's service trade based on ARIMA model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference on Economics, Finance and Statistics (ICEFS 2017)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 382
EP  - 386
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icefs-17.2017.47
DO  - 10.2991/icefs-17.2017.47
ID  - Wang2017/01
ER  -